Category: Metrics

The 2016 Easy Bubble Solver

A note of introduction: we’re college basketball crazy here at SMX. I’m sure we’ll get around to elaborating later, but take it on faith for now.

The premise of the Easy Bubble Solver is this: a simple summing of a team’s KenPom ranking and RPI ranking is a fairly good predictor of a team’s NCAA in/out status. Last year, it went 65/68, picking Temple-Colorado State-Stanford instead of UCLA-Purdue-Indiana (blue blood bias much, Selection Committee?). Details of how it fared are in the 2015 tab, and I’ll put it into Bracket Matrix context at a later date.

You may look down the page, see exactly one previous post, and be dubious of the background/reliability of this endeavor. I wouldn’t blame you. As for its background, the EBS has much loftier origins than this humble blog; it’s a Basketball Prospectus (Drew Cannon?) brainchild, carried on periodically there and by Big Ten Geeks through 2014.

For my own part, I ran the EBS for last season, so I have a little practice. (See the 2015 sheet in the linked Google Sheet.) It’s also a heck of a lot less work than, say, manually comparing everyone’s Top 50 home/road records, factoring in injuries, January/February form, and so on. I also perversely look forward to playing around in Excel to streamline the way I compile this in the weeks ahead. But without further ado, the debut of the 2016 EBS…

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