EBS Bracketology, 2016/02/26

Today’s EBS has all the mid-week action taken into account, and we’re just over two weeks away from the big day!

The biggest move near the top of the heap is Iowa slipping from 9th to 16th in the EBS rankings after allowing Wisconsin to win the fourth quarter 22-8 and take the win in Iowa City, though, to Iowa’s benefit, that’s only a drop of one seed line. Utah continues rounding into form; its weekend win at USC and spanking of Arizona State (a 27-2 first quarter set the tone) have increased the Utes’ standing to a 4 from a 6.

Closer to the bubble, the highest-leverage game was Vanderbilt’s win at Florida on Tuesday. The 87-74 win for the Commodores was an elusive top-tier victory, and helped exorcise a little bit of the bad luck Vandy has had with close losses in KenPom Tier A games to Kansas, at Baylor, at Arkansas, at South Carolina, at Mississippi, at Mississippi State… Vanderbilt’s up to a 9 from an 11 (and Florida’s down to a 10 from an 8), though the EBS is bullish on them thanks to that top-30 KenPom rating. Perhaps their perception will catch up to that–a win against Kentucky tomorrow would certainly aid them.

Quick breakdown of the 16-team bubble:

Last Four Byes: Colorado, Pittsburgh, Oregon State, Yale

First Four: Michigan, Providence, Syracuse, Gonzaga

First Four Out: VCU, Butler, St. Bonaventure, George Washington

Next Four Out: Kansas State, BYU, UCLA, Alabama

VCU taking a loss at George Mason, who is outside the top 175 of both KP and the RPI, was… not good, dropping them from the 9-line to the wrong side of the bubble. The biggest marginal difference is between St. Bona, with an EBS score of 108, and George Washington, with a 119.

The full EBS is available here, as always, and the seed list follows the break.

1s: Villanova, Kansas, Virginia, Oklahoma

2s: North Carolina, Xavier, Michigan State, Kentucky

3s: Miami, Duke, Oregon, West Virginia

4s: Maryland, Utah, Iowa, Iowa State

5s: Purdue, Arizona, California, Indiana

6s: Texas A&M, Wichita State, Texas, Notre Dame

7s: Baylor, Saint Joseph’s, Connecticut, Texas Tech

8s: Dayton, Wisconsin, Arkansas-Little Rock, Tulsa

9s: Seton Hall, USC, Vanderbilt, South Carolina

10s: Florida, Cincinnati, Valparaiso, Princeton

11s: Saint Mary’s, Colorado, Pittsburgh, Oregon State

12s: Yale, Michigan, Providence, Syracuse, Gonzaga, San Diego State

13s: Stony Brook, Monmouth, South Dakota State, UNC Wilmington

14s: Hawaii, Akron, Stephen F. Austin, Chattanooga

15s: UAB, Belmont, New Mexico State, UNC Asheville

16s: Weber State, North Florida, Wagner, Bucknell, Texas Southern, Hampton

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