EBS Bracketology, 2016/02/19

We’re marching ever closer to Selection Sunday. Here’s a glimpse of the landscape as it stands, 3+ weeks away from judgment day.

Oklahoma holds steady on the 1-line even after a tough road loss against an emerging Texas Tech team (an 8 today, out two weeks ago). North Carolina’s let-off in Chapel Hill allows Duke to draw even with them on the 3-line.  Road missteps by Iowa and Maryland drop each of them from the 2-line to the 4-line, leaving KenPom darling Michigan State as the top-seeded Big Ten outfit (a 3).

After an 11-point loss at RPI #5 Xavier, Providence slides–no, jumps–from a 12 to a 10 thanks to the provided (ha!) strength of schedule boost. EBS has been as bearish about the Friars as any bracket in the Bracket Matrix (link on the right). They are one of the prime examples of the KenPom component’s effect here; it also hampers the likes of Dayton in the top third of the field, fellow power-conference middlers Colorado and Pittsburgh closer to the bubble, and Oregon State and Temple outside it.

The spreadsheet with all the details is here, with the seed lists below the fold.

1s: Villanova, Kansas, Virginia, Oklahoma

2s: West Virginia, Kentucky, Miami-Floirda, Xavier

3s: Michigan State, Oregon, North Carolina Duke

4s: Iowa, Maryland, Iowa State, Purdue

5s: Arizona, Texas, Notre Dame, Texas A&M

6s: USC, Dayton, Utah, Indiana

7s: Saint Joseph’s, California, Florida, Baylor

8s: Wichita State, Texas Tech, Connecticut, Seton Hall

9s: Syracuse, Gonzaga, Cincinnati, Wisconsin

10s: Monmouth, South Carolina, Providence, VCU

11s: Colorado, Tulsa, Vanderbilt, Arkansas-Little Rock

12s: Princeton, Valparaiso, Alabama, Butler, Pittsburgh, Michigan

13s: Chattanooga, Akron, Stony Brook, San Diego State

14s: South Dakota State, Hawaii, UNC Wilmington, Stephen F. Austin

15s: Middle Tennessee, Belmont, New Mexico State, Weber State

16s: UNC Asheville, North Florida, Bucknell, Wagner, Southern, Hampton


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